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Sunday, March 26, 2017

Middle East Homework

Hi folks. I will be busy for a day or two.   Here is a timeline of the Arab Israeli conflict : 
  1. The first Arab Israeli War was fought in 1948
  2. The next war was 8 years later - the Suez Crisis of 1956
  3. 11 years later there was the 6 Day War in 1967
  4. Followed by the Yom Kippur War in 1973 - 6 years later
  5. The 1st  Lebanese War (the PLO War) was 9 years later in 1982
  6. The 1st Intifada began 6 years later in 1988 - 1993 
  7. 2nd Intifada took place 7 years later 2000
  8. 2nd War in Lebanon (Shia Hizbollah War) was in 2006
  9. The Invasion of Gaza took place in 2014 (Salafi Hamas War)

The war in Syria will come to a conclusion soon.  Bashar Assad will remain in power. Lebanese Hizbollah (Shia) which is now fully engaged in Syria fighting for Assad will return back to Lebanon in full force and with stronger backing from Syria. This will not happen until 2018 (at least).

Battle hardened Hizbollah soldiers and commanders who return in triumph to Lebanon will be itching for a fight against Israel. The  3rd  Lebanon War may take place in 2000 - 2001.  The Hizbollah will be wiped out. 

Here are two maps of the Middle East (including Pakistan).  The first is a contemporary map of the Middle East.




The second map here (drawn by someone in the US Pentagon) shows what the Middle East may look like in the near future. 


East to West, Pakistan will be broken up into at least two countries Pakistan and Balochistan. This is beginning to happen as there is a strong Balochi armed resistance going on as we read this.  Pakistan will shrink further as Pushtun tribal areas along the Afghan border will also merge with Afghanistan. 

Iraq will break up into an Arab Shia state, a Kurdish state in the north (which has already been functioning for over 12 years now)  and a Sunni Arab state in the west.  In this map above the Arab Shia state extends into the coastal areas of Saudi Arabia as well as Iran, completely encircling Kuwait.  More war.  (My guess is there will be internal unrest in Iran and the Ayatollahs will be overthrown. This is a certainty.)

The new Kurdistan extends from Iraq into Syria, Turkey and parts of Iran.  More war.

On the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen becomes a greater Yemen extending into Saudi Arabia. As we are reading this the Houthis are already occupying parts of Jizan, Asir and Najran. These are Yemeni inhabited lands occupied by Saudi Arabia since the 1930s. The Houthis have said this time around they will not give up these ancestral lands to the Saudis again.

Saudi Arabia itself will be broken up into a Sacred State (Mecca and Medina) and "independent territories" in the east of the country,  where their oil fields are and also where the majority population is Shiah. The names of these new independent territories will be BritishPetroleumistan, Caltexistan and so on.   

There is also a "greater" Jordan on the new map of the Middle East. Jordan is not a country that will invade Saudi Arabia or any other country.  The only way Jordan will become "greater Jordan"  is if Saudi Arabia collapses from within and 'Jordanian' tribes along the Saudi border ask for their lands to be incorporated into a greater Jordan.  Plus it will also be a buffer between Israel and the Shia Arab state in Iraq and Shiah Iran.

Israel remains in place with no expansion of territory.  

Major chess is being played.  
The Arabs will have almost no say in their fate. 
This is always the fate of stupid people. 

In Malaysia many people want to be Arabs.